AUDUSD waits for RBA decision

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AUDUSD continues the bearish tendency; the price has successfully broken the local low and tested the area close to 0.6745.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will present its rate decision. Market players do not expect the rate to change. Earlier, the Australian regulator already cut the rate by 0.25% twice. Right now, the RBA is interested in assessing how these changes may support the country’s economy, but investors are expecting the regulator to cut the rate one more time before the end of this year.

On Friday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe is going to deliver a speech, where he might present economic outlooks. After that, it will be easier to understand if the probability of a further rate cut during the regulator’s next meeting is really high, because the latest statistics may force the RBA to continue stimulating the economy.

In general, market sentiments are in favor of the American currency. One shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the RBA meeting may make AUDUSD continue the current tendency. Bulls may stop this decline only after breaking 0.6900.

In the H4 chart, AUDUSD is forming the fifth descending wave with the target at 0.6738. After reaching this level, the price may start consolidating near the lows and even reach 0.6711. If later the pair breaks this consolidation range to the upside, the instrument may start a new correction towards 0.7000. The first correctional target is at 0.6900. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator, as its signal line is moving at the lows. After the line leaves the bar chart, the indicator may start rising towards 0. If this level is broken, the ascending wave may continue.

AUDUSD, H1
AUDUSD, H1

As we can see in the H1 chart, the downtrend continues; the target is at 0.6738. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.6780 and then start a new decline towards 0.6711. After that, the instrument may consolidate near the lows. If later the pair breaks this range to the upside at 0.6780, the price may continue the ascending wave with the first target at 0.6900. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator, as its signal is moving directly downwards. The line is expected to continue moving downwards and enter the “oversold area”. However, when the line breaks this area upwards, the instrument is expected to start a new correction.

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