EURUSD: bounce from the 45th degree on the cards

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On Monday the 12th of August, trading on the EURUSD pair closed 15 pips up. Donald Trump is still the driving fundamental factor on the market. China is keeping the yuan below 7.00 to the dollar, while Trump is shaking the markets to its foundations with his remarks.

Following the pair’s drop to 1.1162, we got a recovery to 1.1231 on the back of a retreat towards the safe havens. The major US stock indices dropped by 1.5%, while US10Y bond yields also fell. Gold has hit a 6-year high, while the USDJPY pair has reached new lows.

Day’s news (GMT+3)

• 09:00 Germany: harmonised index of consumer prices (Jul).
• 11:30 UK: claimant count change (Jul), ILO unemployment rate (Jun), average earnings (Jun).
• 12:00 Germany: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Aug).
• 12:00 Eurozone: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Aug).
• 15:30 US: CPI (Jul).

Current situation

The 1.1167, 1.1179, and 1.1177 lows have been revisited. The bears have triggered the stop levels below here and must now wait for the 1.1231, 1.1242, and 1.1250 high to be revisited. The pair is trading below the balance line around the 45th degree. I’m expecting the 45th degree to be tested, followed by a bounce to the upper boundary of the channel at 1.1225.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US and China won’t sign a trade deal before the 2020 election. They’ve also downgraded their growth forecast for the US in the third quarter.

Among the important news releases today are the employment report from the UK, and consumer inflation report from the US, which have a strong influence on the pound and dollar respectively.