EURUSD pair consolidating around the trend line

Previous:

On Thursday the 13th of June, trading on the EURUSD pair closed down. The rate dropped after the breakout of the 1.1285 support (trend line, lower boundary of the channel, and 45th degree at 1.1291). Pressure on the euro increased after a statement from the IMF labelling the Eurozone’s central economic forecast precarious.

Markets are currently under the influence of several factors: the likely lowering of interest rates by the Fed, the trade dispute between the US and China, uncertainty over Brexit, and sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 15:30 US: retail sales (May).
• 15:55 UK: BoE’s Governor Carney speech.
• 16:15 US: industrial production (May).
• 17:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Jun), business inventories (Apr).
• 20:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Current situation

Most of the majors are trading down in Asia. At the moment, we have a contradictory picture of the euro in terms of technical analysis. On the chart, I’ve laid out one scenario with a renewed minimum and a rebound to the balance line at 1.1290/95. Another potential scenario is a descending triangle formation and the downwards wave ending at 1.1251. I went with the first one because the stochastic is in the buy zone, and after a bullish divergence, there’s a good chance of the pair returning to around 1.13.