EURUSD: markets await US GDP and the results of the FOMC meeting

On Tuesday the 29th of October, trading on the euro closed up. Bearish sentiment switched to bullish at 1.1074. There are several factors that may have sparked this growth:

• All governments of EU member states ratified the Brexit extension.
• Leader of the opposition Labour Party in the UK, Jeremy Corbyn, has said the party will back a general election in December given that the UK can no longer exit the EU without a deal.
• The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high. Investors expect progress to be made in the US-China trade talks, which had a positive effect on riskier assets.

Day’s news (GMT+3)

• 12:00 Switzerland: ZEW survey – expectations (Oct).
• 13:00 Eurozone: business climate (Oct).
• 15:15 US: ADP employment change (Oct).
• 15:30 US: GDP (Q3).
• 16:00 Germany: harmonised index of consumer prices (Oct).
• 17:00 Canada: BoC interest rate decision and statement, BoC monetary policy report.
• 18:15 Canada: BoC press conference.
• 21:00 US: Fed interest rate decision, Fed’s monetary policy statement.
• 21:30 US: FOMC press conference.

Current situation

Yesterday didn’t end as expected. The market fell victim to the fundamentals. After the breakout of the trend line by the upwards correction from 1.1073 (25/10/19), the euro dropped to 1.1074. The recovery to the trend line killed any hopes of a decline to 1.1067. In the end, the pair rose to 1.1118.

Key facts:

• The bulls have broken the upper line of the channel.
• The rise above 1.1107 (the high between the two lows of 1.1073 and 1.1074) has confirmed a double base model.

There’s plenty going on in today’s economic events calendar. The biggest highlights of the day are the meetings of the Bank of Canada and FOMC, as well as US GDP figures for Q3 and Jerome Powell’s speech. The BoC is expected to keep rates at their current level, while we expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by 25 base points. Since a rate reduction has already been factored in by the market, if it does happen, attention will immediately turn towards the FOMC press conference. GDP is expected to decline from 2% to 1.6%. These figures will be released at 15:30 (EET), so expect some increased volatility ahead of the FOMC meeting.

When there are important events in the calendar to which the reactions can’t be reasonably predicted, we prefer not to predict any price movements. Judging by yesterday’s movements, the bulls can now set their sights on 1.1163.